- During Q3, an estimated 121 million trips were taken, spending $73.8 billion. This represents a 1.6 percent increase in volume and 6.5 percent increase in spending.
- 2014 proved to be a comeback year for international outbound business travel, growing 6 percent in volume year-over-year, after falling 1.0 percent in 2012 and rising only 1.1 percent in 2013. This gain in volume amounts to an estimated $35.6 billion for 2014, a growth of 8.9 percent year-over-year.
- Transient volume performed well in 2014, with an estimated 298.6 million trips taken, representing growth of 3.5 percent year-over-year. Volume will likely fall off pace slightly in 2015, although spending should continue, increasing from $130.4 billion projected in 2014 to an estimated $137.1 billion in 2015.
- Group trip volume will likely finish down 2.2 percent year-over-year, stabilizing after extraordinary growth in 2013. Group spend-per-trip, however, is on pace to rise to $715 in 2014, up from $660 in 2013. Both volume and spending are expected to rise in 2015 by 1.5 percent and 6.7 percent, respectively.
“With US business travel spending forecast to hit record levels in 2015, corporate travel managers have more need to improve business travel expense reporting and tracking,” said Tad Fordyce, SVP, global commercial solutions, Visa Inc. “Visa helps corporate clients manage and improve business travel reconciliation through reporting and automated solutions.”
Despite Weak Global Climate, U.S. Prevails
Global economic growth remains in a weakened state. Europe – especially Russia – is barely treading water, China’s growth is moderating, Japan’s challenges continue and emerging markets are awaiting more robust performance from the developed world. Despite this, the U.S. economy remains healthy with international outbound business travel seeing little to no negative impact.
Plummeting Oil Prices Temper Travel Price Inflation
Oil prices have plunged since June, creating favorable conditions. The effect is particularly impactful on airfares – signified by an expected decline of 0.9 percent in prices next year, down from an expectation of a four percent increase in last quarter’s report. Additionally, consumer spending is expected to increase by 2.6 percent, as lower gas prices often lead to a boost in discretionary income.
GBTA BTI™ Progresses Upward
The GBTA BTI™, a proprietary index of business travel activity, is estimated to reach 137 to round out 2014, bolstered by a strengthening domestic economy and an increase in spending. This represents a six-point year-over-year gain.
The BTI is expected to continue rising in 2015, reaching 146 by the end of next year. Momentum should continue into 2016 as the index gains another seven points on its way to 153.
“The BTI forecast continues to be a strong indicator of the state of business travel, adept at predicting trouble spots and growth signals,” explained Joseph Bates, GBTA Foundation Vice President of Research. “Based on what we’re seeing, business travel will continuing growing as our road warriors take to the skies and streets in 2015 and beyond.”
The GBTA BTI™ Outlook – United States report is available exclusively to GBTA members by clicking here and non-members may purchase the report through the GBTA Foundation by emailing email@example.com. To view an abstract of this research, please click here.
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About the GBTA BTI™ Outlook – United States
The GBTA BTI™ Outlook – United States projects aggregate business travel trends over the next eight quarters. The report includes key buy-side metrics such as total business travel volume and spending, plus supply-side projections of changes in costs, across both transient and meetings travel. Releases are published on the second Tuesday of each quarter.
The GBTA BTI™ Outlook uses an econometric model created by Rockport Analytics to better inform the forecast process. The model explicitly relates measures of business trip volume and spending, sourced from D.K. Shifflet & Associates to key economic and market drivers of business travel including: U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and its components, U.S. Corporate Profits and Cash Flow, U.S. Employment & Unemployment, ISM Business Sentiment Index, Key Travel Components of CPI (airfare, lodging, food away from home, rental cars, fuel, transportation), among other components.