iJET Daily Intelligence Briefing 


May 23

 

Argentina - Buenos Aires Subway Workers Call Off Strike

Members of the Association of Subway Workers and Premetro (AGTSyP) and the Transport Workers Union (UTA) reached a last-minute agreement with Metrovias, averting a strike planned for May 22-24. The unions had threatened to shut down subway, tram, and bus services in the Buenos Aires metropolitan area. Services are now operating normally.

 

iJET Analysis: The AGTSyP and UTA were demanding a 28 percent wage increase and investments in the transport system, among other demands. The unions had organized a series of strikes in recent weeks, often paralyzing the system during the morning or evening rush hours. The two unions accepted a 19 percent salary increase, though several of the other issues have yet to be resolved.

 

Bangladesh - Garment Workers Block Highway

Protesting garment workers blocked all transport movement on the Dhaka-Sylhet highway early May 22 in response to the temporary closure of their factory and the death of a colleague. The unrest took place outside of Sinha Garments in Kanchpur one day after the factory shut down following a clash between factory workers and police. Demonstrators gathered outside the factory but were pushed back by police, which the protesters allege led to the death of a colleague who was hit by a bus as she fled security forces. The protesters hurled brick chips at police and burnt and vandalized at least six vehicles on the highway. The violence left 10 people injured.

 

iJET Analysis: Garment factory workers have increasingly engaged in strikes, protests, and violent unrest in recent months across Bangladesh, and even in several other Southeast Asian countries. Most disputes are centered over labor rights, wages, poor working conditions, or the firing or death of colleagues. Factories are often shut down for at least several days when unrest occurs in a bid to prevent further violence and attacks on employees still willing to work. However, security forces generally pressure demonstrators to return to the job within several days, largely due to Bangladesh's reliance on the garment industry, which provide nearly 80 percent of the country's total exports and employs close to 3 million workers. Conditions are unlikely to change at the factories in the near future so further unrest is likely.

 

India - Shutdown Strike in Assam State May 23-24

The All Koch Rajbongshi Students Union (AKRSU) launched a 48-hour shutdown strike in Assam State, beginning 0500 May 23. The strike is in protest against alleged police highhandedness on AKRSU activists during its 12-hour shutdown of National Highways (NH) 31, 31 (c), and 37 in Lower Assam on May 22. Police charged baton and lobbed tear gas shells and rubber bullets to disperse hundreds of AKRSU activists in Bongaigaon district during the May 22 protest.

 

iJET Analysis: The shutdown will likely have minimal impact in Assam's main city of Guwahati, but could cause significant transport and business disruptions in Koch-Rajbongshi dominated areas in Kokrajhar, Bongaigaon Goalpara, Dhubri, and Darrang districts in Lower Assam. Protesters may stage protests, and block roads and highways. Violent confrontations could occur between police and AKRSU activists.

 

Mexico - Tropical Depression Two Strengthens into Tropical Storm Bud

Tropical Depression Two strengthened into Tropical Storm Bud in the Pacific Ocean off Mexico's southwest coast May 22. Meteorologists predict the storm will strengthen into a hurricane but then weaken back into a tropical storm in subsequent days as it travels northeast toward Mexico. Landfall at tropical storm strength is projected May 27 in coastal Jalisco or Colima state, though the storm path could change as it approaches.

 

iJET Analysis: The storm will bringing heavy rains, storm surge, and strong winds to much of Nayarit, Jalisco, and Colima states, including the Guadalajara metropolitan region. Significant flooding is possible, especially in low-lying areas. Flash floods and mudslides are likely in mountainous regions. Authorities may shut down local ports and halt maritime activities as the storm approaches. Significant ground transport disruptions are likely after the storm makes landfall; road closures will probably occur. Power, telecommunications, and municipal water disruptions are also possible.

 

Myanmar - Power Protests

Protests against power shortages have spread from the central city of Mandalay to Yangon. On the night of May 22, about 150 people rallied at the Sule Pagoda in the former capital amid a heavy police presence to demand government action to guarantee permanent electricity supplies. Journalists and onlookers nearly outnumbered the protesters. About 1,500 demonstrators also rallied in Mandalay, where protests started on May 20. Demonstrators gathered at the Sedona Hotel, which is popular with foreigners; the city's main power station, and the Chinese Consulate-General off Yangyi Aung Road. Police have apparently not made any arrests in Yangon, but they took about 40 protest leaders, including some National League for Democracy (NLD) figures, into temporary custody in Mandalay on the morning of May 22. More street marches are reportedly planned in Mandalay and elsewhere in the days ahead. Other protests have occurred in Monywa in the Saigang Region (Saigang Division) and Pyay (Prome) in the Bago Region (Pegu Division). Organizers have been using social media to encourage participation in the rallies.

 

iJET Analysis: The unrest started in Mandalay because electricity has only been available for 4-5 hours each day in the city. According to the Ministry of Electric Power-2, the shortfall is the result of a drought, which has reduced hydropower output, Kachin rebel attacks that damaged electricity pylons, and high summer demand. The government has indicated that load-shedding will probably not end anytime soon and officials have asked the public to remain patient and conserve energy. The Ministry of Electric Power-1 is the country's main power supplier and could potentially redirect some electricity to the national grid, but it sells much of the power it produces to other countries. The government plans to construct more hydropower facilities in the future, but this obviously does nothing to alleviate current problems. Two prominent US multinationals have expressed interest in the projects since the US government suspended sanctions against Myanmar in early May. Japanese and South Korean firms are also constructing coal- and gas-fired power plants outside Yangon to help alleviate power shortages; the South Korean plant is supposed to come online this year, the Japanese plant will not be completed for another three to four years. The protests are extraordinary because they have been the largest in the country since the 2007 Saffron Revolution and because they are testing the reform-minded government of President Thein Sein, which recently approved a bill authorizing peaceful protests. Organizers are supposed to secure official approval five days in advance, but authorities have apparently allowed the power protests to occur in the absence of permits. Demonstrators have claimed that no specific group is behind the unrest and that the rallies are simply public expressions of dissatisfaction with the government. Protesters have accused the former junta of negotiating lucrative natural gas export deals with China and Thailand at the expense of the public and want the new government to amend these contracts. It is unclear if the protests will gain momentum and result in any major security problems. The involvement of the NLD is a concern because the party could seek to capitalize on public discontent to try to discredit the government. The detention of NLD figures could spark unauthorized protests and subsequent crackdowns.

 

Pakistan - General Strike Sindh May 23

The nationalist Awami Tehreek Party has called for a province-wide strike in Sindh May 23 to protest an attack on an Awami Tehreek rally in Karachi. Gunmen opened fire on the Awami Tehreek rally May 22 as it reached Karachi's Nawa Lane, Pan Mandi, and Juna Market areas, killing at least 11 people and wounding more than 35 others. The attack prompted localized riots in Karachi's Old City and sporadic firing in Nawa Lane, Denso Hall, Dhobi Ghat, Ranchore Line, Lee Market, and Juna Market. At least two shops and a number of vehicles were torched.

 

iJET Analysis: Sizable demonstrations are most likely to occur in Karachi, where protesters may clash violently, attack nearby shops and vehicles, and force businesses and transport to close. Similar disruptions cannot be ruled out elsewhere in Sindh Province. The rally shooting is likely the latest in an escalating number of incidents of targeted political/ethnic violence in Karachi, which have left dozens dead and even more wounded in recent weeks. Political violence is common in Karachi and generally involves supporters of the ruling Pakistan Peoples Party, the Muttahida Qaumi Movement, and the Awami National Party, parties which are largely based on ethnic-lines. Though bystanders can be victims of targeted killings, the overall risk to foreign nationals in Karachi on business or travel is low. Targeted killings are generally constrained within particular neighborhoods that are not on a typical business or tourist traveler's itinerary, though the risk of spillover violence is possible.

 

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May 22

 

Bulgaria - Magnitude 5.8 Earthquake

A shallow, magnitude-5.8 earthquake occurred 25 km (15.5 miles) west of central Sofia at 0300 May 22. Strong shaking probably occurred throughout the capital region and in the Pernik, Sofia, and Kyustendil oblasts near the Serbian and Macedonian borders. Communities close to the epicenter include Sofia, Pernik, Radomir, Kostinbrod, Breznik, Bankya, Bozhurishte, and Slivnistsa. Initial reports did not detail any damage or casualties, but the temblor occurred at a depth of only about 9 km (5.6 miles), increasing the potential for structural damage in areas close to the epicenter. Moderate aftershocks are possible.

 

Canada - Canadian Pacific Railway Workers Threaten Strike

Canadian Pacific Railway Ltd. (CP Rail) workers have threatened to launch a nationwide strike to protest an ongoing contract dispute. The workers have issued the required 72-hour notice and a walkout could occur as early as May 23. The Teamsters Canada Rail Conference, which represents the workers, said that as many as 4,800 conductors, yardmen, engineers, and rail traffic controllers may participate in the walkout, paralyzing CP Rail's freight services.

 

iJET Analysis: The strike may also paralyze local commuter rail services in Toronto, Montreal, and Vancouver. The cities' Go Transit, Agence Metropolitaine de Transport, and West Coast Express all run on tracks owned by CP Rail, so a strike action may also affect these lines.

 

India - Air India Strike Enters Third Week

A strike by Air India (AI) pilots has entered its third week, despite ongoing negotiations between the union and management. The airline implemented a contingency plan May 16 that has halted the worst disruptions, but some cancellations and delays continue, even on international flights. Passengers complain that many flights are canceled at the last minute, often leaving them stranded.

 

iJET Analysis: Price-gouging is occurring on alternate airlines. Officials said ticket prices on alternative international flights have risen nearly 10 percent since the strike began. While a small number of pilots have returned to the job, almost 400 continue to strike and ongoing negotiations have made little progress to resolve the dispute. The pilots have vowed to continue their action until an ongoing training dispute is resolved, the Indian Pilots Guild - the union representing most of the striking workers - is recognized again, and fired pilots are rehired. The strike is also affecting some import and export operations in India, especially for perishable goods. Businesses may be forced to raise prices for select goods if they cannot arrange alternate transport.

 

India - Train Collision in Andhra Pradesh State

A train accident in southern Andhra Pradesh State early May 22 has left at least 24 people dead and more than 40 others injured. The 16591 Hampi Express collided with a stationery goods train at the Penukonda railway station in the Anantpur district at around 0315. The train was en route from Hubli to Bangalore in southern Karnataka State. The accident derailed three coaches, while two other train cars caught fire. The cause of the collision is not yet clear, though initial reports suggest that the driver overshot the signal and hit the goods train. Emergency responders are still working to free trapped passengers. Penukonda is located 127 km (79 miles) north of the Karnataka State capital Bangalore and 385 km (240 miles) south of Hyderabad, capital of Andhra Pradesh State.

 

Italy - Relief Efforts Continue After Magnitude 6.0 Earthquake

The northern Emilia-Romagna region continues to experience aftershocks and severe disruptions in the wake of a magnitude 6.0 earthquake that struck at 0403 May 20. More than 10 buildings have partially collapsed around the city of Ferrera, causing at least six deaths and dozens of injuries. While tremors were felt in Modena and Bologna, the region's capital, no significant damage has been reported in either city. Relief efforts are ongoing, and emergency responders have set up four tent cities in Finale Emilia for approximately 4,000 displaced citizens.

 

Mexico - Tropical Depression Two Forms off Southwest Mexico

Tropical Depression Two formed in the Pacific Ocean off the southwest coast of Mexico. Meteorologists predict the storm will gradually strengthen into a hurricane in the coming days as it travels northeast toward Mexico. Landfall is projected May 26 in Jalisco State, though the storm path could change as it approaches.

 

iJET Analysis: The storm will bringing heavy rains, storm surge, and strong winds to much of Nayarit, Jalisco, and Colima states, including the Guadalajara metropolitan region. Significant flooding is possible, especially in low-lying areas. Flash floods and mudslides are likely in mountainous regions. Authorities may shut down local ports and halt maritime activities as the storm approaches. Significant ground transport disruptions are likely after the storm makes landfall; road closures will probably occur. Power, telecommunications, and municipal water disruptions are also possible.

 

South Africa - Municipal Workers Start Annual Wage Negotiations, Threatening Unrest

South African Municipal Workers' Union (Samwu) demanded an annual salary increase of 15 percent May 21, three times the inflation rate. The union threatened to repeat a mass strike action that crippled municipal service delivery in the past few years if their demands are not met. According to Samwu, an unfavorable response from government will be considered a declaration of war against municipal workers.

 

iJET Analysis: Labor unions normally start their annual wage negotiations during the mid-year months. The negotiation process is characterized by sporadic localized and mass strikes, which cause disruptions in service delivery on national and local government levels. From a labor point of view, this period of the year in South Africa is known as "strike season." Samwu has about 200,000 members who are mostly involved in the supply of water and sanitation, as well as the removal of refuse. The treasury budget only makes provision for a public service salary increase of 5 percent. As such, it is unlikely that the government's response to Samwu's demands will be favorable. The situation threatens to result in sporadic localized protests in municipalities across the country in the next few days and weeks, followed by a mass strike later in the year.

 

Swaziland - Labor Union Unrest Possible

Civil unrest is likely after a government announcement May 21 that foreign labor organizations visiting the country must apply for permission to enter Swaziland for meetings with local labor organizations. Reacting to news that Swazi union leaders met with a delegation of labor union members from the UK and the Netherlands earlier during the day, the minister of labor and social security said foreign labor groups should state their agenda before entering the country.

 

iJET Analysis: The development threatens to cause further divisions between the government and labor unions. In the last two years, pro-democracy movements have been pressuring the government to negotiate for democratic reform in sub-Saharan Africa's last monarchy. The government, however, continues to ignore their calls. This development could add fuel to the frustrations of pro-democracy movements, resulting in an increase of civil unrest while the country's economic crisis continues.

 

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May 21

 

Argentina - Subway and Mass Transit Workers Call for Further Strikes in Buenos Aires

The Association of Subway Workers and Premetro (AGTSyP) will launch a 72-hour strike starting at 1200 May 22. The Transport Workers Union (UTA), which also represents bus and subway drivers, is likely to hold a parallel strike at the same time. The work stoppage will likely paralyze traffic on Buenos Aires' six subway lines, as well as on the Premetro tram. Bus drivers may also participate in the action, leading to further disruptions.

 

iJET Analysis: The UTA originally announced a 24-hour strike May 17, but extended it after talks with the local government failed. This is the latest in a series of strikes by union members to demand salary increases. Earlier labor actions have typically lasted for only several hours, but they have often been timed to coincide with the morning or evening rush hours to maximize impact. Many workers blame current Mayor Mauricio Macri for failing to invest in the city's subway system. Macri supporters, however, claim that the Federal government is responsible for currently problems because it stopped subsidizing the subway security system.

 

India - Congress Party Calls for Statewide Protests in Himachal Pradesh

The opposition Indian National Congress (INC) party in Himachal Pradesh State has announced plans to stage statewide protests May 22. The action is intended to draw attention to alleged corruption in the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led state government headed by Chief Minister Prem Kumar Dhumal.

 

iJET Analysis: The INC has reportedly submitted a list of grievances to its party high command in the federal capital Delhi, highlighting state government irregularities, especially in power and eco-tourism projects, misuse of federal government funds, violation of the Himachal Pradesh Tenancy and Land Reforms Act and undue favors granted to some officers. The INC's chief will also deliver the charges to Indian President Pratibha Patil. Expect increased security and localized traffic disruptions in all district headquarters, especially in the state capital Shimla, and tourist destinations, including Manali in Kullu district and Dharamshala in Kangra district. Major demonstrations are likely near the Vidhan Sabha (lower house of the state legislature) located between the Mall Road and National Highway-22 in Shimla. Low-level violence is possible, especially if police attempt to disperse protesters.

 

Italy - Magnitude 5.9 Earthquake Strikes Emilia-Romagna Region, Killing Six People

A magnitude 5.9 earthquake rocked the Emilia-Romagna region, 36 km (22 miles) north-northwest of Bologna, at 0403 on May 20. The temblor, which lasted about 20 seconds, struck at a shallow depth of 10 km (6.2 miles). At least six people died, and more than 50 others suffered injuries across the region. Several buildings also partly collapsed.

 

iJET Analysis: Strong aftershocks are possible and could cause buildings that sustained structural damage to collapse. Closely monitor local media and follow the instructions of local authorities.

 

Japan - Magnitude 6.0 Earthquake Strikes Near East Coast of Honshu

A magnitude 6.0 earthquake struck off the east coast of Honshu, about 110 km (68 miles) east of Miyako at 1720 May 20, but there was no risk of a tsunami. There were no preliminary reports of damage or injuries.

 

iJET Analysis: Consider vacating multistory buildings as aftershocks are possible. Localized power and utility outages could occur. Closely monitor local media and follow the instructions of local authorities.

 

Nepal - Protests and Strikes Continue Nationwide

Protests and bandhs (shutdown strikes) continue across Nepal, causing widespread and severe commercial and transportation disruptions. Many firms are closed and transport services unavailable, though flight operations are unaffected at Tribhuvan International Airport (KTM) in Kathmandu. The movement of goods from India is reportedly halted. Supporters of the various groups holding the protests are using force to ensure bandh compliance, including vandalizing shops and vehicles. Protesters have clashed with police in many areas; journalists are being increasingly targeted.

 

iJET Analysis: While most violence has so far been relatively low-level, it may be intensifying. Expect more protests and strikes through at least May 27, which is the deadline for the controversial drafting of the nation's new constitution. The events may not be announced in advance; more violence is likely, and protesters may block roads. Police will maintain a heightened presence in major towns and cities, including Kathmandu. Goods and services at firms that remain open may be in short supply or available only at a premium. Supply chain disruptions are very likely. Nepal's Constituent Assembly (the interim parliament) is struggling to finalize a new, post-monarchy constitution while balancing the demands of multiple interest groups. The Supreme Court has ruled that May 27 is the final deadline, and that the Constituent Assembly will become defunct if the date passes with no constitution in place. Should this occur, it is unclear what the next step would be. The primary obstacles to an agreement are the demands of Nepal's more than 100 ethnic groups, many of them pressing for their own states or autonomous regions. The number and boundaries of such states, and the power balance between the states and the federal government, are contentious issues.

 

South Africa - Taxis Resume Service in Durban, Unrest Remains Possible

Taxis in Durban resumed services May 21 after a violent strike that started on May 17. Renewed taxi violence remains possible, however, as authorities view some of the demands made by taxi drivers during negotiations as unrealistic and impractical. City authorities plan to meet with Metro Police management to discuss the demands and formulate a response to the taxi associations. Taxi drivers demand that all traffic tickets be issued in the IsiZulu language, outstanding warrants for arrest of taxi drivers canceled, and that police should not enforce traffic rules during the morning and afternoon peak hours. They also demand that no Indian or white officers should issue traffic tickets, because most Zulu speaking taxi drivers do not speak English or Afrikaans.

 

iJET Analysis: Drivers of minibus taxis are notorious for disobeying traffic rules and dangerous driving. Several incidents of violence occurred during the most recent taxi strike. On May 18 police used tear gas and stun grenades to disperse about 100 taxi drivers who pelted them with stones and on May 19about 50 protesters damaged trash bins and road signs in Besters Taxi Terminal in Phoenix, north of Durban. Police arrested at least 60 people for public violence during the strike. Police will likely reject some of the demands made by taxi associations. As such, taxi violence and strikes may renew later during the week.

 

United States - Tropical Storm Alberto

Tropical Storm Alberto is moving northeast roughly parallel to the South Carolina coast and is forecast to continue to weaken slightly as it passes close to the Outer Banks of North Carolina May 22 before moving out to sea and dissipating. While not expected, a small change in Alberto's path could result in landfall on the North Carolina coast May 21-22.

 

iJET Analysis: Expect rough sea conditions along the Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina coasts, with high winds and heavy rains in South Carolina and North Carolina. Localized flooding is possible. The hardest-hit area will probably be the Outer Banks, though Alberto is a relatively weak storm and the damage will probably not be severe. Flight delays are possible at regional airports, including Charleston International Airport (CHS) and Wilmington International Airport (ILM). Driving conditions may be hazardous, and localized power outages could occur. The storm could disrupt maritime traffic and ports may temporarily close.